Small shops will have to cut jobs or hours or both as a result of the new National Living Wage announced in this month's Budget.
The stark prediction comes as a result of two separate polls conducted following the Chancellor's statement - one by the British Independent Retailers Association (BIRA) and the other by diyweek.net.

Asked by BIRA if the new rate -£7.20 per hour from next April but rising to £9 by 2020 - would result in fewer, more or the same number of jobs, 63% of members said fewer, 31% the same and 3% more (with 3% unknown).

And in diyweek.net's poll (click here to take part) results so far show that 39% will have to restrict or cut back on their staff, while for 31% the pay rise will not have an effect, and a further 31% are already paying a Living Wage.

BIRA said its poll confirmed the Chancellor's own announcement that 60,000 jobs would be lost as a direct result of the new rate. The association calculates that the concession of £1,000 on National Insurance would compensate for less than a year's worth of the increase in the rate for one full-time employee.

Small retailers, even those forecasting no immediate effect, expressed greater concern about the future for the rate. To rise from £7.20 in 2016 to £9 in 2020 would require four sequential annual hikes of 6%, said BIRA.

CEO Alan Hawkins commented: "This will be a body blow to small shops if the government simply imposes this huge jump in cost on a sector already struggling to cope with falling prices, additional pension costs and ever-increasing and punitive business rates.

"It emphasises the need for the Treasury to push ahead quickly with its promises to review and reform this damaging tax if small shops are to have a hope of coping with this unexpected new burden."